This year it's an almost repeat of what we faced in 2008 when "Iron Man" squared off against "The Dark Knight. Indeed, this year we have "The Avengers" about to square off against "The Dark Knight Rises" for 2012 Box Office Supremacy. With "The Avengers" already grossing $552 million domestically, which beats out "The Dark Knight" from its original #3 spot on the All-Time Domestic chart (not to mention being #3 on the All-Time Worldwide chart with about $1.36 billion), it seems that "The Dark Knight Rises" may have its hands full.
Or does it?
Let's look at few different factors from each movie and see if we can figure this out.
"THE AVENGERS"
1. HYPE FACTOR: THE SUPERHERO SUPER-MOVIE.(Advantage)
In 2008, before "The Dark Knight" stunned the box office world with its impressive record-breaking run, Marvel Studios was making already doing the legwork to make "The Avengers". First we had "Iron Man", which had quite the impressive box office run itself. By the end of "Iron Man", we had our introduction to Agent Coulson (Clark Gregg) from the Strategic Homeland Intervention, Enforcement, and Logistics Division ("Just call us "S.H.I.E.L.D."), our first glimpse of Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury, and the idea of "The Avengers Initiative". The same year, we saw the release of "The Incredible Hulk", a sequel-reboot hybrid (re-quel?) of Ang Lee's "Hulk", now with Edward Norton as Bruce Banner. In a small scene during the credits, we see General Ross (William Hurt) talking to Tony Stark (Robert Downey Jr) about a "special project" he's working on.
In 2010, we saw the release of "Iron Man 2", which once again had Agent Coulson and Nick Fury intervening in Tony Stark's life, but introduced us to three big nods to "The Avengers": the introduction of Natasha Romanoff (aka The Black Widow, played by Scarlett Johansson), Captain America's shield, and, in a post-credits scene, we see Agent Coulson in New Mexico discovering Thor's hammer.
In 2011, the rest of the puzzle was complete. "Thor" was released in May, which introduced Thor (Chris Hemsworth) and Loki, but also introduced Erik Selvig (Stellan Skarsgard) and Jane Foster (Natalie Portman) into the mix. Agent Coulson shows up again, and, in the post-credits scene, so does Nick Fury...with the Tessuract. July saw the release of "Captain America: The First Avenger". The title says it all. "The First Avenger". Steve Rogers (Chris Evans, who played Johnny Storm in both "Fantastic Four" movies for Marvel in 2005 and 2007) was introduced, as was a young Howard Stark and the Super Soldier serum which made an appearance 3 years prior in "The Incredible Hulk". In the post-credits scene, we have Nick Fury hiring Rogers to save the planet, followed by the first unofficial trailer for "The Avengers".
Marvel Studios weaved a tapestry quite brilliantly, making the road to "The Avengers" flawless. True, I don't think even the heads at Marvel would have guessed the grosses the film has made at this point (especially seeing that "Thor" and "Captain America" were originally seen as under-performers at the box office), but, in the end, you keep teasing the fanboys, and they will come in droves.
2. JOSS WHEDON (Advantage)
What's better than having the ultimate geek movie? Having the ultimate geek icon write and direct it! And Joss Whedon fits that bill perfectly!
After years of working as a writer on different film projects without much fanfare ("Toy Story", "Titan A.E.", "Alien: Resurrection"), Joss used his immense popularity from "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" and spin-off series "Angel" to create "Firefly", which spawned the 2005 movie "Serenity", both being HUGE cult classics in the fanboy circuit. And Whedon is no stranger to Marvel, having written for "The Astonishing X-Men" with much critical and fanboy acclaim.
Whedon loves comic books, and, putting someone who loves the source material behind the camera was the smartest thing Marvel could've done with this film.
3. RELEASE DATE (Disadvantage)
Since 2002's "Spider-Man", Marvel has, for the most part, released their big tentpole Summer movies in May. Both Iron-Man movies. "Spider-Man" 1 and 3. "Thor". You get my point.
And clearly, releasing "The Avengers" in May has been a smashing success at this point. However, we have a problem.
When "Avatar" was released in December of 2009, it got the major bucks it did by simply not having a whole lot of competition. Go ahead and think back to what movies were released then. Aside from "Sherlock Holmes", you're probably coming up with nothing. And that's my point.
With "The Avengers" opening in May, the beginning of Summer Blockbuster Season, it allows other big tentpole movies to hone in on its territory. Yes, it walked all over "Dark Shadows", and had no problem with mediocre may films "Battleship", "What To Expect When Expecting" and "The Dictator" -- movies that were never going to be huge at the box office. But then you have "Men In Black 3" and "Snow White and the Huntsman" come out, and, before "The Dark Knight Rises" is released, we'll see "Prometheus", "Madagascar 3", "Rock of Ages", "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter", Disney/Pixar's "Brave", "The Amazing Spider-Man", "Savages", and "Ice Age: Continental Drift" released. And that's not even including all the more minor films (like "Ted" and "Magic Mike") coming out in that time period too. Timing is everything, and, in the upcoming months, we'll see grosses on "The Avengers" slow significantly. Hopefully it can squeak out another $50 million domestically to a $600 million total.
"THE DARK KNIGHT RISES"
1. HYPE FACTOR: THE FINAL CHAPTER (Advantage)
If the last "Harry Potter" and "Transformers" films taught us anything, it's that the final chapters of a movie franchise are golden at the box office.
With "The Dark Knight Rises" being advertised as "the epic conclusion" of the Dark Knight series, it's safe to say people will be coming out in droves to see this -- fanboy or otherwise. With the sheer amount of advertising that Warner Bros has been doing for this movie, hyping it up as the last movie (when the hell did Sports Center become this obsessed with movies?), this title has been on the tip of everyone's tongue since the first teaser trailer was released last December with "Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows".
Another thing that has many people salivating over "The Dark Knight Rises" is that this chapter almost didn't get made. After "The Dark Knight", following the death of Heath Leger and visual effects artist Conway Wickliffe, director Christopher Nolan almost did not come back for this installment. Under duress from career and emotional stress over the release, Nolan publicly said he needed time to think about whether or not he was coming back. Many assumed he was not returning when he opted to make "Inception" in 2010 instead, without remembering he made "The Prestige" in 2006, making a similar 4-year gap between "Batman Begins" and "The Dark Knight". But it still stands within reason that, because "The Dark Knight" was loved by so many and broke all the previous box office records (now, ironically, all owned by "The Avengers"), this film could do so again.
2. CHRISTOPHER NOLAN (Advantage)
Let's face it right now. There is no other director in the same ballpark as Christopher Nolan.
The man keeps making gold. Starting from his breakout movie "Memento" in 2001, Nolan made a name for himself very early on in his career. Coming to Warner Bros soon after with 2002's American remake of "Insomnia", which was his first film to gross $100 million worldwide, which also gained a lot of attention from critics as well as audiences. By the time "Batman Begins" left theaters, movie goers finally had a craving for Batman movies again, and wanted to see more.
Christopher Nolan, unlike his predecessors, knows exactly how to handle the Batman franchise. Tim Burton made it too dark and twisted. Joel Schumacher made it too cartoony and ridiculous. Abandoning all that was built before him, Batman had the first official reboot of a franchise, making it relevant and cool for the first time in over a decade.
3. RELEASE DATE (Advantage)
Where "The Avengers" has competition from MANY potential blockbusters this season, once "The Dark Knight Rises" is released, it virtually has no competitors for the rest of the Summer.
Indeed, the only real competition it will face isn't until November when "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2" is unleashed unto the unwitting public. That's almost a full 4 months of practically open box office.
Here's something fun to look at. Go to your local theater and look at the posters. Many are for movies that are either coming out in June...or movies coming out MUCH later. Do you know why? Because NO ONE wants to open against "The Dark Knight Rises". It's a fool's errand. Most movie execs knew this going into this year, and that's why many of the films being released in the subsequent months are the B-movies. This isn't to say many of these movies aren't going to be good. Hell, "The Bourne Supremacy" opens in August, and I'm sure it's going to rock...but I doubt it's going to make too much in the wake of "The Dark Knight Rises". Another example of a great film coming out is "Looper", starring Bruce Willis and Joseph Gordon-Leavitt. It looks incredible, but it's distributed by an independent film company, so it's probably not going to make bank.
Like I said before, timing is everything. When you release a blockbuster before the real competition, you set the tone for the season, but ultimately you leave yourself vulnerable because nothing else has come out, but inevitably will come out. When you open up a little later on when others KNOW you're bound to steal business from them, the field is yours.
4. SUPERHERO/VILLAIN OVERLOAD? (Disadvantage)
If 1998's "Batman and Robin" truly taught us anything (other than George Clooney makes a shitty Batman and Arnold Schwarzenegger is an even shittier actor), it's that too many characters can ruin a movie. Fast.
In the original "Batman", we only had one villain -- The Joker (played by Jack Nicholson), because, let's face it, that's all you need. Then in "Batman Returns", you had The Penguin (Danny DeVito) and Catwoman (Michelle Pfeiffer). In Schumacher's "Batman Forever", you had The Riddler (Jim Carrey) and Two-Face (Tommy Lee Jones), as well as the introduction of Robin (Chris O'Donnell). In ever-so-hated final chapter in this franchise, "Batman and Robin", you had Robin come back, along with Batgirl (Alicia Silverstone), squaring off against Mr. Freeze (Schwartzenegger), Poison Ivy (Uma Thurman) and Bane (Jeep Swenson). That's right kiddies! Bane was in that too!
Nolan's films have fairly consistently had two main baddies per film. "Batman Begins" had Ra's Al-Ghoul (Liam Neeson) and Scarecrow (Cillian Murphy). Sure, it also had Carmine Falcone (Tom Wilkinson) in it as well, but he was more of a villain to Bruce Wayne than to Batman, so it can be forgiven. "The Dark Knight" had Two Face again (this time played by Aaron Eckhart), but most featured The Joker (this time played by the late Heath Leger).
And now we have "The Dark Knight Rises", which has the return of Bane (now played by Tom Hardy) and Catwoman (now played by Anne Hathaway). But we may also have a third villain. Joseph Gordon-Leavitt plays a character named John Blake, a character Warner Bros has yet to release too much information on. He appears on the surface to be working for the Gotham P.D., but that's it. One rumor flying around since the film's inception (pun is only slightly intended) is that John Blake is really Robin, where another rumor says that John Blake is Alberto Falcone, who is not only son of Carmine Falcone but also The Holiday Killer from the comic story arcs "The Long Halloween" and "Batman: Dark Victory".
Whether any of these rumors are true or not, the sheer idea of another overloaded Batman movie doesn't seem like a good idea. Though it probably wouldn't affect the opening box office at all, the backlash would cause bad word-of-mouth, which kills movies like this very quickly.
***FINAL VERDICT***
So far, "The Dark Knight Rises" has a lot to live up to. By the time it comes out, "The Avengers" will probably have $600 million (or at least something damn close to it), so playing catch up will be fairly difficult. However, seeing that the only other movie fanboys have not-so-patiently been waiting for as much as "The Avengers" (if not more) is "The Dark Knight Rises", and, with close to four months going virtually unopposed, it could very well be another Year of the Bat.
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